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Civil war declaration: On April 14th and 15th, 2012 Federal Republic of Germany "_urkenstaats"s parliament, Deutscher Bundestag, received a antifiscal written civil war declaration by Federal Republic of Germany "Rechtsstaat"s electronic resistance for human rights even though the "Widerstandsfall" according to article 20 paragraph 4 of the constitution, the "Grundgesetz", had been already declared in the years 2001-03. more
MAJANDUSÜLEVAADE
12. november 2026
Ilmus majandusülevaade
Väljaandes antakse ülevaade majandus- ja rahandusalasest teabest, mille alusel EKP nõukogu teeb rahapoliitilisi otsuseid. Ülevaade ilmub kaheksa korda aastas, kaks nädalat pärast iga rahapoliitikaistungit.
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PANGATÄHED
12. november 2026
Tutvustame uute europangatähtede kujunduse ideaakavandite autoreid
Muudame europangatähtede kujundust, et need oleksid kasutajate jaoks veelgi omasemad ja kaasavamad ning ühtlasi ka turvalised ja vastupidavad. Tutvu kümne ideekavandi ja nende autoritega ning loe lähemalt, mis neid inspireeris ja kuidas vormiti kaks väljavalitud teemat visuaalseteks motiivideks.
Tutvu ideekavandite autoritega
EKP BLOGI
12. november 2026
Mida ütleb Reddit jaeinvestorite meeleolu kohta
Üha enam jaeinvestoreid tegeleb spekulatiivse kauplemisega ning paljud neist kasutavad platvormi Reddit aruteludeks, mis näitavad meeleolu muutumist ajas ja erinevate turutingimuste korral. EKP tehisintellektil põhinev näitaja tuletab neist aruteludest lühiajalise turusuundumuse.
Loe blogiartiklit- 10 November 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 10 November 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 6 November 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 4 November 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 3 November 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 3 November 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 2 November 2026
- MFI INTEREST RATE STATISTICS
- 10 November 2026
- Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Bank of England and its Watchers Conference
- 10 November 2026
- Introductory statement by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European ParliamentEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (16) +
- 5 November 2026
- Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB Conference on Money Markets 2026
- 5 November 2026
- Keynote speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the eighth International Conference of Regional Card Schemes and Retail Financial Market Infrastructures
- 2 November 2026
- Speech by Boris Vujčić, Vice-President of the ECB, at the Central Bank of Ireland’s Financial System ConferenceAnnexes
- 7 November 2026
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Hironari Akiyama on 4 November 2026
- 24 October 2026
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Roberto Sommella on 21 October 2026
- 20 October 2026
- Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Aloysius Widmann on 14 October 2026
- 8 October 2026
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Daniele Manca on 23 September 2026
- 6 October 2026
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Domenico Conti on 1 October 2026
- 12 November 2026
- Retail investors are increasingly becoming speculative traders, and many are using Reddit as a platform for discussions that reveal how sentiment evolves over time and across market conditions. Our AI-based indicator turns these discussions into a short-term market signal.Details
- JEL Code
- G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
G41 : Financial Economics
D83 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Search, Learning, Information and Knowledge, Communication, Belief
C88 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Other Computer Software
- 11 November 2026
- The sovereign debt crisis led to a marked increase in wealth inequality in the euro area. Since then, inequality has slowly returned to pre-crisis conditions. Yet, its effects are still felt and visible today in the countries most severely affected by the crisis.Details
- JEL Code
- D31 : Microeconomics→Distribution→Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
D63 : Microeconomics→Welfare Economics→Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
- 4 November 2026
- This summer's heatwaves, droughts and wildfires were a warning. Their economic impact has so far been limited, but the costs of a warming climate are rising. Europe needs better protection against the financial fallout of climate change and a more flexible energy system that makes the most of clean power.Details
- JEL Code
- Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 3 November 2026
- Despite the expansion of the Single Euro Payments Area, or SEPA for short, many households continue to rely on costly channels for transferring money across borders in Europe. New survey evidence suggests that public awareness of European payment integration is still surprisingly limited.Details
- JEL Code
- F24 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→Remittances
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 2 November 2026
- Has the latest energy shock triggered a new wave of food price increases? To find out, we’ve used innovative AI tools to track changes in price setting by supermarkets. So far, the rise in the repricing momentum has been weaker than in 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.Details
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
D40 : Microeconomics→Market Structure and Pricing→General
C81 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data, Data Access
- 12 November 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3310Details
- Abstract
- This paper estimates the macroeconomic effects of defence spending for a panel of up to 27 EU member states over 1999–2025 using Panel Local Projections. We look beyond the output multiplier that dominates the literature to trace the price implications of defence spending and the demand-side channels through which effects operate. A key methodological contribution is a country-specific order-date adjustment for capital expenditure, constructed from the SIPRI Arms Transfers Database, which shifts the estimated (unitary) peak GDP multiplier from around year one to approximately year three to four. Under this specification, the HICP inflation response is higher and occurs earlier. Capital expenditure drives the positive output effects, whereas personnel and intermediate consumption generate stronger inflationary pressures per unit of fiscal impulse. Capital spending induces additional recurrent costs, standing at about 30 cents per euro spent over five years. Multipliers are also found to be substantially lower, on average, in high public debt regimes.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H54 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Infrastructures, Other Public Investment and Capital Stock
H56 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→National Security and War
- 12 November 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN
- 12 November 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box examines how exposure to artificial intelligence (AI) is reflected in the market-based financing conditions of European firms. Using a novel firm-level measure of AI exposure derived from the earnings call transcripts of STOXX Europe 600 constituents, we show that AI exposure extends beyond a narrow set of infrastructure providers and hyperscalers, encompassing a broader range of firms that adopt AI for product innovation or productivity gains. Panel regressions show that AI-exposed firms earn a robust equity return premium of around 1.3 percentage points per quarter and pay significantly lower option-adjusted spreads on their corporate bonds, while also issuing a relatively higher share of long-dated debt. These patterns indicate that AI exposure is priced into both equity and corporate bond markets across the wider economy in Europe and is more broadly distributed than the concentrated market rally would imply.
- JEL Code
- C80 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→General
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
G30 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→General
L25 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior→Firm Performance: Size, Diversification, and Scope
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
- 12 November 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box examines the composition of “public services” employment in the euro area. This sector has contributed disproportionately to aggregate employment growth in recent years. Drawing on the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey and Eurostat’s EU Labour Force Survey, we show that only around half of the 6.9 million public services jobs created since 2008 can be attributed to the public sector. Within public services, health and social work is the dominant driver, yet this is also the least “publicly provided” sub-sector. Within health and social work, growth is concentrated in activities related to care of the elderly and disabled, which is closely linked to ageing demographics and in large part provided from outside the public sector.
- JEL Code
- H10 : Public Economics→Structure and Scope of Government→General
H40 : Public Economics→Publicly Provided Goods→General
H51 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Government Expenditures and Health
- 12 November 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box introduces a new quantitative methodology to evaluate alternative scenarios around the Eurosystem/ECB staff baseline projections, with a focus on their empirical plausibility. In a first step, the methodology constructs joint predictive distributions capturing temporal and cross-variable dynamics for euro area real GDP growth and HICP inflation. It then assesses the empirical plausibility of scenario outcomes by computing the likelihood of each scenario relative to that of the baseline against historical patterns. Applied to the Middle East scenarios in the September 2026 ECB staff macroeconomic projections, the framework shows a higher empirical plausibility for the milder scenario relative to the alternative scenarios. The box highlights that the proposed empirical plausibility index goes beyond a simple assessment of scenario severity, underscoring the necessity of accounting for both temporal and cross-variable correlations.
- JEL Code
- E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E27 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 11 November 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box looks at whether stablecoins are on the rise in the euro area and what the implications are for financial stability, using data from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey. It highlights the transactional nature of stablecoins and the risks posed by an increase in consumer holdings. While current exposures remain limited, the analysis underscores the importance of monitoring the use of stablecoins and the potential spillover effects on consumer confidence and financial markets.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
G51 : Financial Economics
- 11 November 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3309The real and financial effects of local corporate tax increases: evidence from linked firm–bank dataDetails
- Abstract
- We study how local corporate tax increases affect firms’ financing and real activity. In Portugal, municipalities independently set a surtax on corporate income, generating plausibly exogenous variation across space and time. We link the universe of corporate balance sheets and profit-and-loss statements to loan-level data from the Bank of Portugal’s credit registry, allowing us to track firms’ liquidity, leverage, borrowing costs, and credit quality alongside revenues, employment, and productivity. We estimate local-projection difference-in-differences models that address staggered treatment timing and dynamic responses. Surtax hikes immediately tighten financing conditions: liquidity falls, implicit interest rates rise, debt increases at shorter maturities, and non-performing loans become more prevalent. These strains spill over into real outcomes: firms reduce sales and employment and experience persistent declines in total factor productivity. Effects are strongest among small firms, where leverage rises in response to liquidity losses. We also find higher exit and relocation probabilities, but no gains in neighboring output, pointing to inefficient reallocation. Our results highlight how local tax policy can transmit through both financial and real margins, with implications for fiscal design in decentralized settings.
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
H25 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Business Taxes and Subsidies
H32 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents→Firm
H71 : Public Economics→State and Local Government, Intergovernmental Relations→State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
- 11 November 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2026Details
- Abstract
- Energy market developments continue to be shaped by the conflict in the Middle East. Global refinery runs have fallen significantly compared to previous years, driven by reduced refinery activity in the Middle East, Russia and Asia. The constrained supply of crude oil and refined products has led to a persistent global increase in refining margins and costs, particularly for diesel. In view of the important role of refining costs and margins in transport and heating fuel inflation, the ECB’s short-term inflation projection model for energy shows that expected heightened trajectories for refined energy product prices may lead to higher energy inflation even if oil prices move in the opposite direction.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q41 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Demand and Supply, Prices
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
- 10 November 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2026Details
- Abstract
- Banks are at the heart of the EU economy, making them a key channel for monetary policy transmission. However, institutional factors continue to lead to fragmentation in the sector, constraining scale, efficiency and competitiveness. As shown by Altavilla et al. (2024), more competitive banks are more resilient to shocks and transmit monetary policy more effectively. The competitiveness of euro area banks has improved in recent years, reflecting stronger balance sheets and higher intermediation margins, but pockets of cost inefficiency and issues of scale remain, leaving further room for improvement. These factors could be eased by completing the savings and investments union and facilitating cross-border lending to increase both scale and efficiency, resulting in the smoother transmission of monetary policy in the euro area.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 10 November 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2026Details
- Abstract
- Motivated by the renewed use of industrial policy, this article examines the conditions under which sector-specific interventions can support productivity, competitiveness, and economic resilience. While industrial policy may be justified where market failures or dependencies are well-identified, selective intervention entails risks of distortion through rent-seeking and resource misallocation. These risks are particularly relevant in the EU, where uncoordinated industrial policy is implemented in a multi-country Single Market with heterogeneous institutions and bank-based financial structures. In this setting, industrial policy can be effective only with credible governance and complementary structural reforms.
- JEL Code
- F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
H25 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Business Taxes and Subsidies
L52 : Industrial Organization→Regulation and Industrial Policy→Industrial Policy, Sectoral Planning Methods
O25 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Development Planning and Policy→Industrial Policy
- 9 November 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2026Details
- Abstract
- Summer 2026 brought repeated episodes of extreme heat to large parts of the euro area. This box assesses the implications for euro area construction output. Survey data from the European Commission show that the share of construction firms citing weather as a factor limiting their activity was exceptionally high, reaching a record level in August and remaining elevated in September. Estimates based on country and sector data suggest that such disruption lowers construction output temporarily, with losses in a given month typically made up in the following month. This summer’s weather is estimated to have lowered construction output by around 0.2% in July, 0.3% in August and 0.1% in September. The overall impact is small and should be short-lived, but the effect of extreme summer weather could become more persistent if extreme heat becomes more frequent and longer-lasting.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
L74 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction→Construction
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 9 November 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3308Details
- Abstract
- This paper provides an assessment of supervisory effectiveness in credit risk using confidential data from ECB Banking Supervision. The analysis covers 8,106 supervisory measures issued and closed between 2016 and 2025. A central contribution is the construction of a measure level indicator of supervisory effectiveness based on large language model (LLM) analysis of supervisory narratives and closure justifications. The indicator captures whether supervisory measures resulted in full remediation of the underlying deficiencies. Using logistic and duration models, we examine the characteristics of findings, measures, and banks associated with remediation outcomes and remediation speed. The results show that multi-faceted findings are a key driver of supervisory outcomes. Measures related to data, reporting, and IT deficiencies are less likely to achieve full remediation and require longer remediation periods. Measures originating from on-site inspections are associated with higher remediation rates and faster closure. Stronger governance is also associated with more successful remediation outcomes.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
H81 : Public Economics→Miscellaneous Issues→Governmental Loans, Loan Guarantees, Credits, Grants, Bailouts
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 9 November 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2026Details
- Abstract
- The ECB climate change centre (CCC) was established in 2021 to design and steer the ECB’s response to climate-related risks. During its first five years, the centre has evolved from a dedicated coordination hub into a facilitator of the integration of climate and nature-related risks into the ECB’s overall analytical and risk framework. It has thereby supported the institution’s progression from “recognition to integration” in addressing climate and nature-related risks. This article reviews the developments and achievements of the CCC and discusses how it continues to support the climate-related work of the ECB in response to a changing economic, policy and environmental landscape.
- JEL Code
- E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
Q57 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Ecological Economics: Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity Conservation, Bioeconomics, Industrial Ecology
- 6 November 2026
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 4 November 2026
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 4 November 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3307Details
- Abstract
- Most empirical models of trend inflation treat it as a latent random walk driven by unobserved shocks, so they cannot say which economic conditions move it. Deep- π*makes the innovations to the trend a possibly nonlinear function of a large number of macroeconomic indicators, estimated with neural networks, so that Shapley values can be used to attribute every movement of the trend to the indicators behind it. Two complementary loss functions define a current trend, which fits inflation today, and a forward-looking trend, which best predicts inflation over the next year. In US data, employment-related variables were the largest contributors to the post-pandemic rise of the current trend. However, the forwardlooking trend rose earlier, with real activity, employment, and money and credit as the main drivers from the start of the pandemic, and peaked eight to twelve months before the current trend. Both trends looked through most of the movements in energy and commodity prices. The contributions of the indicators are nonlinear, with sizeable interactions between them. Re-estimated every month during the surge, the model forecast inflation more accurately than the standard UC-SV model and a random walk, and in early 2021, when professional forecasters expected inflation of 3% or less, the forward-looking trend was already signalling an increase in persistent inflation.
- JEL Code
- C45 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Neural Networks and Related Topics
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 3 November 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3306Details
- Abstract
- Government spending effectiveness depends critically on how it is financed. Using state dependent SVAR models and local projections on post-war US data, we show that fiscal expansions financed with short-term debt generate significantly larger output multipliers than those financed with long-term debt. This difference mainly stems from private consumption responses: short-term financing crowds in consumption while long-term financing does not. Torationalize this finding, we construct an incomplete markets model in which households invest in short-term and long-term assets. Short assets provide liquidity/safety services; households can (more readily) use them to cover sudden idiosyncratic spending needs. An increase in the supply of these assets, through a short-term debt-financed government expenditure shock, boosts private consumption. We first show this mechanism analytically in a simplified model, and then quantify it in a carefully calibrated New Keynesian model. We find that fiscal multipliers differ substantially across financing modes, with short-term-financed shocks typically exceeding unity while long-term-financed shocks typically fall below unity. We show these differences persist across monetary and fiscal policy regimes, with important implications for optimal debt management and stimulus design.
- JEL Code
- D52 : Microeconomics→General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium→Incomplete Markets
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
- 3 November 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3305Details
- Abstract
- The functioning of sovereign bond markets is closely intertwined with repo markets, where investors finance long positions and source bonds for short sales. We show, theoretically and empirically, how conditions in the cash bond market fundamentally shape repo rates: When demand for cash bonds exceeds available supply, arbitrageurs, notably hedge funds, step in to bridge the gap by shorting bonds and borrowing them in the repo market. These arbitrage strategies drive a wedge between monetary policy rates and repo rates, generating “specialness”. To investigate the drivers of investors’ demand for repo contracts, we obtain regulatory data covering the entire universe of repos backed by German sovereign bonds. We identify the ultimate borrowers and lenders of securities and estimate their demand and supply elasticities for the repo market. Supply, dominated by the public sector, accounts for 87% of the aggregate elasticity. Demand, driven mainly by hedge funds, is strongly inelastic: a 10% increase in borrowing costs reduces their borrowing by only 1%. Despite being among the most price-elastic investors in cash bond markets, hedge funds are inelastic in repo markets because their bond borrowing bridges the preferred-habitat demand in the cash bond market: their elasticity is inherited from their cash-market counterparties rather than being a primitive. As a result, repo rate specialness emerges as the equilibrium price reflecting demand pressures in the cash bond market, of which collateral scarcity from central bank purchases is a special case. Consequently, the same cash bond market imbalances affect both the pricing of safe assets and repos, two markets that are of crucial importance for the transmission of monetary policy.
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 2 November 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3304Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies the European Central Bank’s (ECB) perception of non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFIs) and how this perception is publicly communicated. We construct a perception index based on ECB speeches over the period 1998–2025. Sentiment in references to non-banks is classified by a large language model that we fine-tune on our own hand-labeled dataset constructed for this purpose. The resulting index reveals a predominantly negative and declining perception over time, particularly since the Global Financial Crisis. Negative sentiment is primarily associated with concerns related to financial stability and regulatory needs, whereas positive sentiment reflects the role of non-banks in fostering financial innovation and supporting market functioning. The index is made publicly available for future research.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
C80 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→General
- 2 November 2026
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 148Details
- Abstract
- High public debt around the globe has revived concerns that it could impede central banks’ ability to control inflation. This article explains how public debt affects the work of central banks. They can still control inflation, but they must take public debt into account when setting rates, because debt affects the level of interest rates consistent with price stability.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
Intressimäärad
| Hoiustamise püsivõimalus | 2,50 % |
| Põhilised refinantseerimisoperatsioonid (fikseeritud intressimääraga) | 2,65 % |
| Laenamise püsivõimalus | 2,90 % |
Inflatsioonimäär
Inflatsioonist lähemaltVahetuskursid
| USD | US dollar | 1.1081 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 176.96 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.83595 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9232 |
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